After the World Series, five Blue Jays players became free agents: Matt Chapman, Kevin Kiermaier, Hyun Jin Ryu, Jordan Hicks and Brandon Belt. Later, Whit Merrifield joined that list after he and the Blue Jays declined their mutual option for 2024.
Over the past five days, known as the quiet period, the Blue Jays have had an exclusive window to negotiate with their free agents. Not surprisingly, no player has re-signed since it’s generally a player’s prerogative to test the open market.
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That said, let’s look at the case for and against each of the Blue Jays free agents to return to Toronto.
Matt Chapman, 3B
Age during majority of 2024 season: 31
2023 stats: .240/.330/.424, 110 wRC+, 3.5 fWAR/4.4 bWAR
The case to re-sign
Chapman remains a delight to watch play third base, often making exceptionally difficult plays look routine. Even if he isn’t as otherworldly with the glove as he used to be — age comes for us all — he remains one of the best third basemen in the game and he bounced back in 2023 with 12 Defensive Runs Saved after he was worth only two in 2022. Chapman helped make the Blue Jays an elite defensive team. His offensive performance, however, was streaky this past season, though there is a case to be made that Chapman deserved better results than he got with his elite exit velocity and hard-hit rates. He still possesses the ability to hit the ball very hard and maybe he will find more consistency next year and beyond. He’s also well-liked in the clubhouse and seen as a charismatic leader, whom his Toronto teammates would be happy to see back. For as frustrating as Chapman’s offensive performance can be at times, the Blue Jays don’t have many internal options at third base to take his place. Their best in-house candidates might be prospects Addison Barger or Orelvis Martinez; neither of whom has any MLB experience and who would be tasked with a tall order trying to replace Chapman.
The case to let him walk
After an incredible month of April, where Chapman put up a 1.152 OPS, his offensive performance fell off a cliff in 2023. For the remainder of the season, he had a .659 OPS, nearly 140 points below his career average. He also struck out 28.4 percent of the time, up from 27.4 percent a year ago. Even with his so-so offensive season, Chapman remains one of the best position players available in what’s been described as a weak position player market. With Scott Boras as his agent, he’ll likely be able to demand a multi-year deal north of $120 million. (The Athletic’s Jim Bowden predicted a six-year, $127 million contract). That’s a hefty price to pay for a player who’s shown some signs of decline, both offensively and defensively. In all likelihood, the Blue Jays will extend Chapman the qualifying offer and if he declines it — which seems likely — and signs elsewhere, the Blue Jays will receive an extra draft pick as compensation.
The Blue Jays’ outfield defense improved considerably with Kevin Kiermaier on board. (Richard Lautens / Toronto Star via Getty Images)Kevin Kiermaier, CF
Age during majority of 2024 season: 34
2023 stats: .265/.322/.419, 104 wRC+, 2.2 fWAR/3.9 bWAR
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The case to re-sign
Even in his mid-30s and following hip surgery, Kiermaier didn’t lose a step in the outfield and he remains one of the game’s elite centre fielders. The 33-year-old led all American League centre fielders with 18 Defensive Runs Saved and, like Chapman, he’s a significant reason why the Blue Jays were ranked as the best defensive team in the majors. Offensively, Kiermaier had his best season since 2017 and he was a productive bat at the bottom of Toronto’s lineup. He also remained mostly healthy, playing in 129 games and landing on the IL only once with a minor injury. Kiermaier went from heel to hero in Toronto in a matter of days after a decade with the Rays and fans would love to see him back in a Blue Jays uniform.
The case to let him walk
Can Kiermaier repeat his 2023 season? Surely, he’ll still be elite defensively but he enjoyed exceptional health and there is always a risk of injury when a player plays as hard as Kiermaier does. The Blue Jays also have a ready-made replacement in Daulton Varsho, who like Kiermaier, is exceptional defensively and he is proven in centre field. (Varsho also had 18 DRS in centre field this season.) If Kiermaier was interested in another one-year deal, maybe the Blue Jays bring him back, but anything longer and Toronto could probably move on knowing they’re in good hands in the outfield with Varsho.
Hyun Jin Ryu, LHP
Age during majority of 2024 season: 37
2023 stats: 3.46 ERA, 52 IP, 38 K, 14 BB, 9 HR, 0.4 fWAR/bWAR
The case to re-sign
When Ryu underwent Tommy John surgery last summer there was no guarantee he would pitch in a Blue Jays uniform again. However, not only did Ryu recover in time to pitch during the last two months of this season, but he also performed very well. Ryu’s return was one of the season’s best storylines and, if nothing else, it put a nice bow on the four-year, $80 million contract he signed that ushered in Toronto’s competitive window. It was only 11 starts, but Ryu showed this season he still can outwit batters with his precise command. On a one-year deal, Ryu could offer starting pitching insurance, especially with the uncertainty around Alek Manoah. Ryu is also a popular player in the clubhouse.
The case to let him walk
Ryu will be 37 next season so there is a chance he’ll retire — although he declined to discuss his future at the end of the Blue Jays season and told Jeeho Yoo, of Yonhap News, that “we’ll have to wait and see. Only time will tell” about his plans to play another season in MLB. If he did want to pitch one more season, the Blue Jays might be wary of his declining velocity — when he’s not spotting his pitches perfectly, he can get hit pretty hard. Most of the Blue Jays 2023 rotation is returning next year and the club may want to reserve the open spot for Manoah or one of their other young arms. If Ryu is seeking a full-time role in a rotation, Toronto may not be the spot for him.
Jordan Hicks was a trade deadline acquisition from St. Louis. (Dan Hamilton / USA Today)Jordan Hicks, RHP
Age during majority of 2024 season: 27
2023 stats: 3.29 ERA, 65 2/3 IP, 81 K, 32 BB, 4 HR, 1.1 fWAR/0.8 bWAR
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The case to re-sign
Acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals at the trade deadline, Hicks made what had already been a strong Blue Jays bullpen even better. No reliever throws as consistently hard as Hicks, who in 2023 averaged 100.3 mph on the four-seamer and 100.1 on the sinker, which he pairs with a slider. When Hicks is commanding the baseball — something he did better overall in 2023 compared to his career norms — he’s an elite set-up man and gives the Blue Jays a dangerous one-two punch at the back of their bullpen with closer Jordan Romano. Hicks can step in for saves, as well, giving the Blue Jays insurance if Romano is down. Hicks will only be 27 next season, which is relatively young for a free-agent reliever.
The case to let him walk
After Josh Hader, Hicks is one of the best relievers available and he’ll most likely demand closer-level money. Will the Blue Jays want to shell that out, especially for a reliever who has proven to have some durability issues? Hicks has only pitched 243 1/3 innings in the big leagues as he embarks on free agency. As The Athletic’s Keith Law pointed out, his big velo and sinker/slider combination make him a tempting target but his past command and durability issues make him emblematic of the risk that exists with signing relievers to long-term deals.
Brandon Belt, DH/1B
Age during majority of 2024 season: 36
2023 stats: .254/.369/.490, 138 wRC+, 2.3 fWAR/2.0 bWAR
The case to re-sign
Last offseason, the Blue Jays signed Belt to a one-year, $9.3 million deal. It was a risk, as he was coming off a career-worst season and a knee injury that had left him wondering if his career was over. But successful surgery led to a bounce-back season and the 35-year-old came as advertised as a patient lefty hitter. His .369 OBP led all Blue Jays regulars and while it was a down offensive year for most of the Blue Jays, Belt emerged as one of their most consistent hitters. He also brought intangibles, like veteran experience and his signature quick wit. If Belt could repeat his 2023 performance — a big if — then he’d be a candidate to bring back. However, the Blue Jays may not even have a decision to make here.
The case to let him walk
Belt may decide to walk himself right into retirement. As the season neared its end, Belt hinted he was contemplating retiring. After the Blue Jays were eliminated, Belt said he would take some time to discuss his baseball future with his family. If he does return, bringing him back still could be risky since he’ll be 36 and missed time with a back injury down the stretch.
Whit Merrifield, UTL
Age during majority of 2024 season: 35
2023 stats: .272/.318/.382, 93 wRC+, 1.5 fWAR/0.8 bWAR
The case to re-sign
Both the Blue Jays and Merrifield declined their $18 million mutual option for 2024, the team announced last week, prompting the 34-year-old utility player to become a free agent for the first time in his career. Merrifield had a strong first half for the Blue Jays, which thrust him into a near-everyday role. His contact ability and speed are useful tools on offence while he offers defensive versatility with his ability to play in the infield and outfield. While $18 million for one year was too steep, Merrifield could be a useful piece on a shorter-term deal with a lower average annual value.
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The case to let him walk
The Blue Jays aren’t short on utility men, with Cavan Biggio re-emerging as the best internal super-utility option after his bounce-back campaign. There isn’t a pressing need to re-sign Merrifield, especially with Davis Schneider looking like a ready-made replacement who earned a chance to compete for a big-league job next spring after a historic start to his MLB career. Beyond the internal options, Merrifield’s offensive performance also fell off significantly during the second half and his final offensive numbers were below average for the third straight season, pointing to a decline.
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(Top photo of Matt Chapman: John E. Sokolowski / USA Today)
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