I need more hot takes. They don’t have to be good, just sizzling. Like David Carr of the NFL Network saying the Eagles would be better with Marcus Mariota playing over Jalen Hurts. (Though Hurts is clearly not playing at 100 percent, he has leadership, toughness and a clutch gene that is not found in most starting QBs, let alone backups.)
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Hot takes can even be delusional. Like Micah Parsons saying the 49ers would win even with him throwing passes to Deebo Samuel. But no disrespect to Brock Purdy.
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Let me try a couple: Dak Prescott will win the MVP award if the Cowboys beat the Eagles on Sunday. All he would have to do is split games at Buffalo and at Miami before putting up big numbers against the Lions and Commanders to close out the regular season.
Even when people criticized Prescott in the past, they felt bad because he was clearly a great guy who has been through a lot. And this season, he has taken his game to another level. Prescott has thrown a league-high 10 touchdowns against zone coverage since the Cowboys’ Week 7 bye — after throwing none in the first six games of the season.
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That was pretty tame. How about this one? This will be the week that a rag-tag bunch of underdogs rise together like Shane Falco and the Washington Sentinels did 23 years ago. Favorites have gone 20-9 against the spread the last two weeks, but that ends here. Nine underdogs will stand tall and have a moment of glory we can all share in.
Last week: 7-6 against the spread, 3-2 on best bets.
Season record: 105-96-3 ATS, 37-28 on best bets.
All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.
Whispering all season long that the Steelers were much worse than their record turned into yelling when they got blown out at home by the Cardinals last week. And now Mitch Trubisky is their quarterback and T.J. Watt said the league hates him because he can’t get a holding call.
The Steelers shouldn’t be favored by 6 points against anybody, especially because they won’t be able to run the ball against the Patriots — stopping the run is the one thing New England does well. The Patriots just lost three consecutive games where they gave up 10, 10 and 6 points, and they will indeed lose this one. But Ezekiel Elliott has a big game — i.e. the Patriots will score — and the defense keeps it close enough.
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The pick: Patriots
The Falcons can clinch the NFC South by winning Sunday and going 7-6. No, just kidding. But that’s how bad this division seems. The Buccaneers are 5-7 and you might think they are decent. Nah. They are just a sea urchin in the marine food chain. Tampa Bay is 1-7 against teams currently .500 or better, tied for the second-worst record in the NFL (the Giants are 0-6). Their defense is banged up, Baker Mayfield is running for his life and RB Rachaad White is the classic fantasy guy who doesn’t do much to help actual teams win games.
The Falcons aren’t that good, but they can run the ball and they can pressure the quarterback. And there might be some value here because the score of the first matchup (16-13 Falcons) was misleading as the Falcons fumbled twice on the goal line. Atlanta wins a third consecutive game for the first time in four years.
The pick: Falcons
I have been guilty of sleeping on Puka Nacua. The fifth-round pick out of BYU is more than a cute story; he is a dynamic playmaker who was the biggest reason the Rams beat the Browns last week. And that was after he left the game with shoulder and rib injuries and came back in. Nacua became the third player this season to reach 20-plus mph on both a carry and a reception in a single game (Tyreek Hill in Week 12, Deebo Samuel in Week 13) and is the first rookie to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards by Week 13 since Justin Jefferson.
With Cooper Kupp, Nacua gives Sean McVay two great route runners who he can move around and create space for yards after the catch. And Kyren Williams runs well enough to keep defenses honest. The Ravens are coming off a bye with games on deck against the Jaguars, 49ers and Dolphins, so they might not be totally locked in.
The pick: Rams
Rams rookie receiver Puka Nacua is more than a nice story — he’s a dynamic playmaker. (Kirby Lee / USA Today)Justin Fields ran for 104 yards and the Bears should have beaten the Lions in their first meeting three weeks ago. Plus, the Bears only lost to the Lions by 1 point at home last season. I guess that explains why this point spread has been shrinking. Throw in that the Lions defense has not played well in a month and the weather should be frightful — Jared Goff is not a mudder — and I guess you can see why the Bears have a chance to split the season series.
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But … since returning from a thumb injury, Fields has struggled to stretch the field. He ranks 31st in air yards per attempt since Week 11 (5.8) and his average pass has been thrown 3.7 yards short of the sticks, second shortest in the NFL over that span. And … the Bears can’t cover Amon-Ra St. Brown (18 catches for 196 yards in the last two matchups).
The pick: Lions
We were wrong in thinking the Colts’ luck would run out last week. They scored 9 points off a blocked punt and fumbled punt and then watched the game go to overtime when the Titans missed an extra point. They have now won four consecutive games by a combined 14 points.
This week, though, they run into big, bad Jake Browning. Browning became the seventh player in NFL history to complete at least 86 percent of his passes for 350-plus yards in a single game. Browning was 8-for-12 for 151 yards and a touchdown against the blitz. Gus Bradley and the Colts don’t blitz much, but Browning won’t have to do as much. Joe Mixon should carry the workload and the proud Bengals improve to 2-1 without Joe Burrow.
The pick: Bengals
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The Browns were trailing the Rams by 1 point late last week when Joe Flacco threw a horrible interception and things spiraled quickly. That’s what we get for backing a quarterback who was coming off the couch. Well, we’re back on the Browns again, and we don’t even know who is playing QB for them this week. Their defense will bounce back, thanks to going against C.J. Beathard, likely in for Trevor Lawrence after his high ankle sprain.
The Jaguars are coming off their first “Monday Night Football” game in 12 years, and their offensive line is banged up. The Browns were 7-3 before losing two road games, and they don’t need a QB to do much to win at home. In fact, Cleveland allowing only 3.4 yards per play at home this season is on pace to be the best number by any defense this century.
The pick: Browns
With Derek Carr likely out, Jameis Winston will have a chance to save Dennis Allen’s job. And he should be able to do that by simply handing the ball off, as the Panthers rank in the bottom half of the NFL in yards per rush allowed this season (4.2) and yards after contact are a big reason why.
Carolina ranks 25th in opponent yards after contact per rush (2.9) and has given up first downs on 17.8 percent of rushes in which first contact was made before the line to gain, the highest percentage in the NFL. Bryce Young somehow had a TD drive and two-point conversion to cover against me and the Buccaneers last week. Let’s see him do it again. Oh, and by the way, New Orleans is 3-0 in games it was favored by at least 5.5 points under Allen.
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The pick: Saints
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Hey, I don’t blame Zach Wilson if he wasn’t overly excited about starting again. In the words of the great Ricky Watters, “For who, for what?” He takes a beating behind a terrible offensive line and he gets blamed for every Jets loss. Did we mention that Nathaniel Hackett draws up the plays in crayon?
The Jets have only scored touchdowns on 7 percent of their offensive drives this season (10 of 142) — the lowest through 12 games by any team this century. They are large underdogs at home to the Texans, who have already matched their win total from the previous two seasons combined. The Jets secondary is good enough to give even C.J. Stroud some trouble, and people forget that the Texans lost to the Panthers. If I squint really hard, I can even see Aaron Rodgers carrying Wilson off the field.
The pick: Jets
The Jets defense will help fuel Zach Wilson to a win in his return to the starting QB job. (Brad Penner / USA Today)The Joshua Dobbs experience hits Las Vegas, and people are still loving the highs apparently as the Vikings are road favorites against a Raiders team that is 4-2 at home. Dobbs can extend plays with his feet, breaking tackles on runs and firing off completions, as both Cardinals and Vikings fans have seen in big wins this season. He can also throw passes right at defenders or so hard at his up-close receivers that there is a great ricochet effect. The Vikings have turned the ball over on 19.6 percent of their drives in four full games since Kirk Cousins went down, the second-highest rate in the NFL since Week 9.
As for the Raiders, we’re still waiting for an offensive breakthrough for a team with Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, but they’ve scored only 46 points the last three games. Maybe this week …
The pick: Raiders
Teams that score 40 points usually don’t cover the spread the next game. It’s true. I heard it from a guy who heard it from another guy, but I had another guy check. (They’re 6-6 straight up and 3-9 against the spread in their next game.) Last week, three teams scored 40 or more points — the 49ers, Cowboys, Dolphins and 49ers.
So, give us the Seahawks to cover. Even though the 49ers stuffed the Seahawks on Thanksgiving and then dominated the Eagles. (Are they in for a letdown?) And even though Geno Smith is 0-3 as a starter against the 49ers in his regular-season career, his worst record against any opponent. In terms of EPA per dropback, those three games represent three of his worst six regular-season outings in 29 starts the last two years. (Looking for something.) The Seahawks will have three more days of rest. Aha.
The pick: Seahawks
This one is simple math. The Chiefs have won three of the five matchups since 2020 by an average score of 29-28. So the Bills will lose by one and cover the spread. The Chiefs are banged up defensively, so a rested Josh Allen (off a bye) should be able to do some damage with his arm and legs. Meanwhile, the Bills should be able to pressure Patrick Mahomes without blitzing.
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Mahomes’ receivers are bad this season, and that’s been well-documented. The Chiefs also turn the ball over, with 12 since Week 6 (tied for 24th), while the Bills lead the NFL with 79 points off turnovers — including 31 such points in their last three games (second most in NFL since Week 10). But that’s just a cherry on the sundae. The history and the math say take the points.
The pick: Bills
The Broncos were a fun story, but are they really going to make a playoff push? They would need to win here, in their first of two matchups with the Chargers in the final five weeks. The Broncos’ secondary should be able to contain Keenan Allen, and the last time Austin Ekeler cracked 70 yards was Sept. 10. Justin Herbert has the quarterback edge over Russell Wilson, but which one has made plays to win games in the fourth quarter this season?
We will need some more tough catches by Courtland Sutton, who has a league-high four TDs on targets with under a 30 percent completion probability. (Sutton tied for the lowest average separation last week, 1.1 yards, while averaging the highest targeted air yards at 31.3.) Plus, there is a huge coaching edge. Let’s riiiiiide.
The pick: Broncos
Russell Wilson and Garett Bolles will win their AFC West showdown with the Chargers. (Ron Chenoy / USA Today)The Eagles have had a brutal stretch, with games against the Cowboys, at the Chiefs, at the Bills, home against the 49ers and now at the Cowboys. They won the first three and now hope to avoid dropping the last two after the 49ers physically beat them up. The Eagles secondary has struggled, and the Cowboys offense should feast just like it has in its last six wins against lesser opponents. That’s because Prescott will have to time to operate, as the Eagles’ pass rush has surprisingly hit a wall of late. After opening the season with multiple sacks in seven straight games, the Eagles have not gotten the quarterback to the ground at the same level. Since Week 8, Philly ranks 28th in sack rate (4.4 percent) and tied for 27th with 10 total sacks.
The teams’ first matchup came down to a couple of plays, and this time Prescott makes them.
The pick: Cowboys
Mike McDaniel is like that kid who has all the coolest toys but sometimes he just wants to play with his Etch A Sketch. The Dolphins have an NFL-high 10 plays of 50-plus yards this season including seven touchdowns. It’s the most such touchdowns through 12 games by any team since the 2017 Chiefs (nine).
But there are games when he wants to establish the run and not take chances — maybe in preparation for the playoffs — like in wins against the Patriots and Raiders. Here’s hoping this week is one of those, plus we also have some growing confidence in Will Levis, who led not one but two potential game-winning drives in an overtime loss to the Colts last week.
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The pick: Titans
The Packers have won and covered the spread in four of their past five games, and yeah Jordan Love is not the same guy he was earlier in the season. He even has broadcasters dancing around Rodgers comparisons. The public is buying it as the Packers are 6.5-point favorites on the road. And they should be, as the Giants’ secondary is not very good. New York will rely on blitzing as usual, and Love is pretty good against the blitz.
The Giants, meanwhile, have allowed the most sacks in the NFL (69) and rank 29th in sacks by their defense (21). The minus-48 sack differential is not only the worst in the NFL this season, it’s 11 sacks worse than any other team in the NFL through 12 games this century (David Carr’s 2002 Texans were minus-37).
The pick: Packers
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Best bets: Rams, Seahawks and Titans stay close against the Ravens, 49ers and Dolphins, respectively; Lions win in Chicago, and Bengals cool off the Colts.
Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): Jets over Texans. Zach Wilson shocks the world … or the defense leads a 13-10 win. Same thing.
— TruMedia research courtesy of NFL editor Jason Starrett.
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(Top photo of Dak Prescott: Cooper Neill / Getty Images)
“The Football 100,” the definitive ranking of the NFL’s best 100 players of all time, is on sale now. Order it here.
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